Contributed Papers, THURSDAY, AUGUST 24, 9:00 - 10:30 a.m.

Forecasting (Session 24a-21)

Chair: John W. Galbraith (McGill University, Canada)

Optimal Prediction under Asymmetric Loss
Peter F. CHRISTOFFERSEN (University of Pennsylvania, USA)
Francis X. Diebold

A Multi-Dimensional Panel Data Analysis of Survey Forecasts
Anthony DAVIES (Wesleyan College, USA)
Kajal Lahiri

An Evaluation of Forecasting Using Leading Indicators
Rebecca A. EMERSON (London Business School, UK)
David F. Hendry

Auctions 1 (Session 24a-22)

Chair: Robert Eisner (Northwestern University, USA)

Sequential, Oral, Ascending-Price, Open-Exit Auctions with Multi-Unit Demand and an Application to the Sale of Siberian Timber Export Permits
Harry J.PAARSCH (University of Western Ontario, Canada)
Jacques Robert

Nonparametric Estimation of First-Price Auctions
Isabelle M. PERRIGNE (INRA-ESR, France)
E. Guerre
M. Simioni
Q. Vuong

Econometrics of Optimal Procurement Auctions
Quang H. VUONG (University of Southern California, USA)
J.J. Laffont
A. Oustry
M. Simioni

Wage Differentials (Session 24a-23)

Chair: Wiji Arulampalam (University of Warwick, UK)

High-Wage Workers and High-Wage Firms
David N. Margolis (Universite de Montreal, Canada)
Francis Kramarz
John M. Abowd

Private and Public Sector Wage Structures in Germany
Christian DUSTMANN (University College London, UK)
Arthur van Soest

Panel Data Models 1 (Session 24a-25)

Chair: Cheng Hsiao (University of Southern California, USA)

Estimation of a Censored Regression Fixed Effects Panel Data Model Using Conditional Moments Efficiently
Erwin CHARLIER (Tilburg University, The Netherlands)
Bertrand Melenberg
Arthur van Soest

Use of Covariance Restrictions for More Efficient Estimation of Coefficients
Kyung So IM (University of Cambridge, UK)

Estimating Life-Cycle Labor Supply Tax Effects
James P. ZILIAK (University of Oregon, USA)
Thomas J. Kniesner

Measuring Inequality and Welfare 1 (Session 24a-26)

Chair: R. Tiwari (University of Jammu, India)

Empirical Analysis of Inequality & Welfare
Esfandiar MAASOUMI (Southern Methodist University, USA)

Income Inequality and Relative Deprivation
Amita MAJUMDER (Indian Statistical Institute, Calcutta)
Satya R. Chakravarty
Nachiketa Chattopadhyay

On Calculating Welfare Losses of Taxation and Public Provision
Ilpo SUONIEMI (Government Institute for Economic Research, Finland)

International Trade 1 (Session 24a-31)

Chair: Takatoshi Ito (International Monetary Fund, USA)

Multilateral Trade Rules and the Expected Cost of Protection
Will MARTIN (World Bank, USA)
Joseph F. Francois

Multilateral Policy Reforms and Quantity Restrictions on Trad
Alan D. WOODLAND (University of Sydney, Australia)
Arja H. Turunen-Red

Exact Sampling Distributions (Session 24a-32)

Chair: Alok Bhargava (University of Houston, USA)

Exact Sampling Distributions in Binary Data Models
Andrew CHESHER (University of Bristol, UK)
Simon Peters

Finite Sample Comparisons of Distributions of the OLS and GLS Estimators in Regression with an Integrated Regressor and Correlated Errors
Koichi MAEKAWA (Hiroshima University, Japan)
John Knight
Hiroyuki Hisamatsu

The Exact Distribution and Density Functions of the Inequality Constrained and Pre-Test Estimators
Alan WAN (City University to Hong Kong)

Cointegration Testing 2 (Session 24a-33)

Chair: Yuzo Hosoya (Tohoku University, Japan)

Test for Polynomial Cointegration in Presence of Broken Trend at Unknown Date
Stephane GREGOIR (INSEE, France)

The Power of Cointegration Tests: Does the Frequency of Observation Matter?
Alfred A. Hmule& AUG (York University, Canada)

Pitfalls in Testing for Long Run Relationships
Tae-Hwy LEE (University of California, Riverside, USA)
Jesus Gonzalo

Inference for ARCH-Type Processes (Session 24a-35)

Chair: Giorgio Calzolari (Universita Degli Studi di Firenze, Italy)

Linear Statistical Inference for ARCH-Type Processes
Nour MEDDAHI (Universite de Sciences Sociales, France)
Eric Renault

Consistency of Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Models with Conditional Heteroscedasticity
Doug STEIGERWALD (University of California, USA)
Whitney K. Newey

Specification Test for a Linear Regression Model with ARCH Process
Xiao-Lei ZUO (National University of Singapore)
Anil K. Bera

Growth 2: Models of the Process of Growth (Session 24a-36)

Chair: Elhanan Helpman (Tel Aviv University)

The Growth-Maximizing Distribution of Income
Arthur ROBSON (University of Western Ontario, Canada)
Myrna Wooders

Growth under Uncertainty with Experimentation
Michael SPAGAT (Brown University, USA)
Graziella Bertocchi

Endogenous Growth with Gradual Product Obsolescence
Edwin L.C. LAI (Boston University)

General Equilibrium 2: Existence (Session 24a-41)

Chair: Ajit Ranade (IGIDR)

Equilibrium Existence and Fixed Point Theorems: Equivalence Theorems
Manabu TODA (Tokyo-Keizai University, Japan)
Tomoichi Shinotsuka

Equilibria for Abstract Economics in Topological Vector Spaces - A Unified Approach
Xian-Zhi YUAN (The University of Queensland, Australia)
E. Tarafdar

Existence of Non-Cooperative Equilibria in Social Systems
Murat R. SERTEL (Bogazici University)
Prem Prakash

Real Business Cycles (Session 24a-42)

Chair: Selo Imrohoroglu (University of Southern Califoria)

Household Production and International Business Cycles
Angel J. UBIDE
Fabio Canova

Home Production with Endogenous Growth
Tor EINARSSON (University of Iceland)
Milton H. Marquis

Financial Market Theory 3: Market Structure (Session 24a-43)

Chair: Gerhard Orosel (University of Vienna)

A Liquidity Based Model of Security Design
Peter DEMARZO (Northwestern University, USA)
Darrell Duffie

Optimal Futures Innovation in a Dynamic Economy -- A Discrete Time Case --
Kazuhiko OHASHI (University of Tsukuba, Japan)

Equilibrium Fee Schedules in a Monopolist Call Market
Jeffrey HEISLER (Boston University)
Nicholas Economides

Joint Ventures (Session 24a-45)

Chair: Jonathan Eaton (Boston University)

On the Organization of Cooperative R&D: Theory and Evidence
Changqi WU (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
Zhigang Tao

Disclosure of Know-How in Research Joint Ventures
David PEREZ-CASTRILLO (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)
Joel Sandonis

Nonverifiability, Noncontractibility and Ownership in Foreign Direct Investment: Technology Based Foreign FirmsˇÕ Subsidiaries in Japan
Masao NAKAMURA (University of British Columbia, Canada)
Jim Xie

Dynamic Investment Behavior in Organizations (Session 24a-46)

Chair: Beatriz Amenderiz de Aghion (London School of Economics)

Impetuous Youngsters and Jaded Oldtimers: An Analysis of Behavioral Decision Making Rules
Lars STOLE (University of Chicago)
Canice Prendergast

Learning and Self-Reinforcing Behavior in Organizations
Jeffrey ZWIEBEL (Stanford University)
Margaret Meyer

Irreversible Investment and Costs of Adjustment
Fanny S. DEMERS (CEPREMAP and Carleton)
Michel Demers
Huntley Schaller

Bargaining 2 (Session 24a-53)

Chair: Michele Piccione (The University of British Columbia)

Kalyan CHATTERJEE (The Pennsylvania State University)
Bhaskar Dutta

Externalities in a Bargaining Model of Public Price Announcements and Resale
Maarten CORNET (Free University, The Netherlands)

Strategic Bargaining and Competitive Bidding in a Dynamic Market Equilibrium
Abhinay MUTHOO (University of Essex)
Melvyn G. Coles

Monotone Comparative Statics (Session 24a-54)

Chair: Roger Myerson (Northwestern University)

The LeChatelier Principle
John ROBERTS (Stanford University)
Paul Milgrom

Monotone Comparative Statics in Stochastic Optimization Problems

Lattice Programming and Economic Optimization: Applications to Consumer Theory
Elena ANTONIADOU (Cambridge University)

Random Matching (Session 24a-55)

Chair: John Nachbar (Washington University)

Learning, Matching and Aggregation
Ed HOPKINS (European University Institute and GREQAM)

The Folk Theorem in Anonymous Random matching Games with Incomplete Information
Jae Hong PARK (Princeton University)

Program World Conference Econometric Society Tokyo, August 1995