Contributed Papers, MONDAY, AUGUST 28, 9:00 - 10:30 a.m.

Seasonality (Session 28A-21)

Chair: Philip Hans Franses (Erasmus Univery Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

Why is Consumption so Seasonal?
Andrew SCOTT (All Souls College, UK)

Seasonal Cointegration and Money Demand Function
Chung-Hua SHEN (National ChengChi University, TaiWAN)
Tai-Shin Huang

State Space Models (Session 28A-22)

Chair: Charles H. Whiteman (The University of Iowa, USA)

Switching State Space Models Likelihood Function, Filtering and Smoothing
Monica BILLIO (CREST, France)
Alain Monfort

Nonlinear & Nonnormal State-Space Modeling with Monte-Carlo Stochastic Simulations
Hisashi TANIZAKI(Kobe University, Japan)
Roberto S. Mariano

A State-Space Method for Solving Linear Rational-Expectations Models: With an Application to a Keynesian-Style Model
Peter A. ZADROZNY (Uniwersytet Warszawski, Poland)

Training and the Labor Market (Session 28A-23)

Chair: Paul Taubman (University of Pennsylvania, USA)

Work-Related Training and Earnings Growth for Young Men in Britain
Wiji ARULAMPALAM (University of Warwick, UK)
Alison Booth
Peter Elias

The Structural Effects of Youth Employment Schemes on the School-to-Work Transition
Denis FOUGERE (C.N.R.S. et C.R.E.S.T., France)
Liliane Bonnal
Anne Serandon

Training, Wages and the Human Capital Model
Jonathan R. VEUM (US Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA)

Taxation: Empirical Studies (Session 28A-25)

Chair: Sajal Lahiri (University of Essex, UK)

Taste Differences as a Justification for Non Uniform VAT
Christopher HEADY (University of Bath, UK)

Fiscal Anarchy in the UK: Modelling Poll Tax Compliance
Ian PRESTON (University College London, UK)
Timothy Besley
Michael Ridge

The Reform and Design of Commodity Taxes in the Presence of Tax Evasion with Illustrative Evidence from India
Ranjan RAY (Delhi School of Economics, Delhi University, India)

Endogenous Growth Models: Empirics(Session 28A-26)

Chair: John Geweke (University of Minnesota, USA)

Growth, Increasing Returns, and Public Infrastructure: Empirical Time Series Evidence
Joao Victor ISSLER (Getulia Vargas Foundation, Brazil)
Pedro C. Ferreira

Multisectoral Growth with Marshallian Externalities
Klaus NEUSSER (University of Bern, Switzerland)

Estimating the Equity Risk Premium in a Multi-Sector Stochastic Endogenous Growth Model
Jan M. PODIVINSKY (University of Southampton, UK)
Jan Jakobsen

Trade and Development (Session 28A-31)

Chair: L. Alan Winters (The World Bank, USA)

Trade, Development and Converging Growth Rates
Theo S. EICHER (University of Washington, USA)

Has Asian Export Performance been Unique?
Marcus NOLAND (Institute for International Economics, USA)

The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Revisited Theory and Evidence
Pablo SANGUINETTI (Universidad Torcuato di Tella, Argentina)
Hildegart Ahumada

Linear Models (Session 28A-32)

Chair: Jan F. Kiviet (University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

LUB for the Covariance matrix of a GLSE in Regression with Applications to an SUR Model and a Heteroscedastic Model
Hiroshi KURATA (Hitotsubashi University, Japan)
Takeaki Kariya

Autoregressive Generalized Linear Models
Neil SHEPHARD (Nuffield College, UK)

On Normality and the Linear Regression Model
Aris SPANOS (University of Cyprus)

Inflation and Stabilization (Session 28A-33)

Chair: Julia Darby (University of Glasgow, UK)

High Inflation Dynamics: Integrating Short-Run Accommodation and Long-Run Steady State
Rafi MELLNICK (Bank of Israel)
Michael Bruno

Inflation and Stabilization in Argentina
Baotai WANG (Instituto Torcuato di Tella, Argentina)
Erwin Klein
U.L. Gouranga Rao

The Peruvian Stabilization Program (1990-1994): An Econometric Evaluation
Mario ZAMBRANO (Banco Central de Reserva del Peru, Lima-peru)

Stock Markets 3 (Session 28A-35)

Chair:George Tauchen (Duke University, USA)

High Frequency Analysis of Lead-Lag Relationships between Financial Markets
Frank DE JONG (Tilburg University, The Netherlands)
Theo Nijman

Market Time and Asset Price Movements Theory and Estimation
Joanna JASIAK (York University, Canada)
Eric Ghysels
Christian Gourieroux

Mean Reversion in Stock Index Futures Mispricing: Statistical Illusion or Arbitrage Induced
Pradeep K. YADAV (University of Strathclyde, UK)
Peter Pope

Growth 7: Public Policy (Session 28A-36)

Chair: Se-jik Kim (International Monetary Fund, USA)

Education Subsidies, Progressive Taxes & Economic Growth
Paul J.G. TANG (University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands)
Frederick van der Ploeg

International and Intergenerational Aspects of Capital Income Taxation in an Endogenously Growing World Economy
Yasushi IWAMOTO (Kyoto University, Japan)
Akihisa Shibata

Does Public Capital Formation Promote Economic Growth?
Danyang XIE (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
Shantayanan Devarajan
Heng-fu Zou

General Equilibrium 9: Efficiency (Session 28A-41)

Chair: Beth Allen (University of Minnesota)

Efficiency and Equality: Quantifying the Trade-Off of Progressive Income Taxation
Ana CASTANEDA (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain)
Javier Diaz-Gimenez
Jose-Victor Rios-Rull

Pareto Improving Changes and Approximate Pareto Optima
Kwan Koo YUN (State University of New York at Albany, USA)

Marginal Rates of Substitution for Uninsurable Risks with Constrained-Efficient Asset Structures
Chiaki HARA (Universite Catholique de Louvain, Belgium)

Allocation 4: Indivisibilities (Session 28A-42)

Chair: Marcus Berliant (Washington University, USA)

First Best Bayesian Privatization Mechanisms
Taesung Kim (Seoul National University,Korea)
John O. LEDYARD

Resale Markets and the Assignment of Property Rights
Philippe JEHIEL (CERAS, France)
Benny Moldovanu

Nonexpected Utility (Session 28A-43)

Chair: Stephen Morris (University of Pennsylvania, USA)

Reconciling the Conflicting Evidence on Decision Making under Uncertainty
Edward J. GREEN (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, USA)

Certainty Preference in Expected Utility Theory
Ulrich SCHMIDT (Christian-Albrechts-Universitaet zu Kiel, Germany)

Consistency in Dynamic Choice Situation with Nonexpected Utility Models
Rakesh SARIN (University of California Los Angeles, USA)
Peter Wakker

Innovation and Oligopolistic Competition(Session 28A-45)

Chair: Noriyuki Yanagawa (Keio University, Japan)

Patent Licensing with Spillovers
Reiko AOKI (State University of New York at Stony Brook, USA)
Yair Tauman

Towards a Theory of Socially Valuable Imitation with Implications for Technology Policy
Rune STENBACKA (University of Helsinki, Finland)
Vesa Kanniainen

The Dynamics of Firms' R&D Expenditure
Ting-fang CHIANG (Tamkang University, Taiwan)

Organizations and Worker Productivity (Session 28A-46)

Chair: Serdar Dinc (Stanford University, USA)

Corporate Restructuring, Technological Change, and the Distribution of Labor Income
Dagobert L. BRITO (Rice University< USA)
Michael D. Intriligator
Erica R. Worth

Worker Participation and Productivity in Labor-Managed and Participatory Capitalist Firms: A Meta-Analysis
Chris DOUCOULIAGOS (Deain University, Australia)

Delegation of Responsibility in Organizations
Paul W.J. DE BIJL (Tilburg University, The Netherlands)

Endogenous Cooperation Structures (Session 28A-53)

Chair: Shmuel Nitzan (Bar-Ilan University, Israel)

Stable Trading Structures in Bilateral Oligopolies
Francis BLOCH (Groupe HEC, France)
Sayantan Ghosal

Endogenous Formation of Cooperation Structures
Cheng-Zhong QIN (University of California at Santa Barbara, USA)

Macroeconomics 4: Credibility (Session 28A-54)

Chair: Boyan Jovanovic (New York University, USA)

The Ultimate Determinants of Central Bank Independence
Sylvester Eijiffinger (Tilburg University, The Netherlands)
Eric SCHALING

The Instability of Monetary Policy Rules
Olivier JEANNE (CERAS-ENPC, France)
Bernard Bensaid

Noncooperative Games: Timing (Session 28A-55)

Chair: Akihiko Matsui (University of Tsukuba, Japan)

Endogenous Commitment and Equilibrium Selection in some Economic Games
Eric VAN DAMME (Tilburg University, The Netherlands)
Sjaak Hurkens

N-person Endogenous Leader-Follower Relations
Masuyuki NISHIJIMA (Yokohama City University, Japan) Alternative Type Patterns of Decisions and Strategic Interactions
Pierre Cahuc (Universite Paris 1 Pantheon Sorbonne)
Hubert KEMPF

Program World Conference Econometric Society Tokyo, August 1995