OUTLIER DETECTION IN GARCH MODELS
Category: Econometrics
GARCH
MODELS IV Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room:
4.7 Session Chair(s): Jurgen Doornik, Nuffield College,
University of Oxford, UNITED KINGDOM
Abstract:
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We present a new procedure for detecting additive
outliers in GARCH(1,1) models. The outlier candidate is the
observation with the largest standardized residual. First, a
likelihood-ratio based tests determines the presence of an
outlier. Next, a second LR test determines the type of outlier
(volatility or level). This procedure is shown to be
approximately independent from the GARCH parameters, with a
null distribution that can be easily approximated. We apply
the method to returns of the Dow Jones index, using monthly,
weekly, and daily data. The procedure is extended to cover
GARCH models with Student-t distributed errors.
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