PERIODIC UNOBSERVED COMPONENT TIME SERIES
MODELS:ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING WITH APPLICATIONS
Category: Econometrics
TIME
SERIES III Tuesday 27th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 4.2
Session Chair(s): Marius Ooms, Free University Amsterdam,
NETHERLANDS
Abstract:
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We explores a periodic time series analysis in the
context of unobserved components models which decompose a time
series into components like trends and seasonals. We compare
five approaches. Standard nonperiodic structural time series
modelling, periodic univariate unobserved components modelling
of seasonal subseries, homogeneous multivariate unobserved
components modelling, common trend modelling and seemingly
unrelated unobserved components time series modelling. We
confine ourselves to cases where estimation, diagnostic
checking and forecasting can be carried out easily and
interactively using existing user-friendly software packages.
We apply the methods to quarterly time series of energy
consumption. | |
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