Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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PERIODIC UNOBSERVED COMPONENT TIME SERIES MODELS:ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING WITH APPLICATIONS


Category: Econometrics
TIME SERIES III
Tuesday 27th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 4.2
Session Chair(s): Marius Ooms, Free University Amsterdam, NETHERLANDS

Presenter(s): Ooms, Marius

Co-Author(s): Koopman, Siem Jan

Keyword(s): Common Trends, Periodicity, Seasonality, Structural Time Series Models

JEL(s): C22

Abstract:

We explores a periodic time series analysis in the context of unobserved components models which decompose a time series into components like trends and seasonals. We compare five approaches. Standard nonperiodic structural time series modelling, periodic univariate unobserved components modelling of seasonal subseries, homogeneous multivariate unobserved components modelling, common trend modelling and seemingly unrelated unobserved components time series modelling. We confine ourselves to cases where estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting can be carried out easily and interactively using existing user-friendly software packages. We apply the methods to quarterly time series of energy consumption.


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Paper Reference Number: 1267

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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